How Many of Us Are There – Showing the Math

In April of this year, I posted an article debunking the oft-quoted but obviously wrong figure of 36,000 for the number of same-sex binational couples in which one partner is a U.S. citizen. I am constantly confronted with that problematic number. It is a serious undercount.

This figure comes from a study authored by demographic researcher Dr. Gary Gates of the UCLA Williams Institute on Sexual Orientation Law and Public Policy. In the study, Dr. Gates analyzes self-reported data from the year 2000 U.S. Census. Dr. Gates points out that the figure is an undercount, and he lists six reasons why. Also, that number is based on self-reporting on a U.S. Census form. How many of us would voluntarily report ourselves as being in a binational same-sex relationship to the U.S. Government, knowing that simple knowledge that an applicant is in a relationship with a U.S. citizen is grounds for denying a U.S. visa?

Notably, the figure doesn’t even attempt to count same-sex binational couples currently living abroad or separated by law.

I have corresponded with Dr. Gates on the matter, and he has provided an updated “minimum” estimate of 40,000 for the present day (again, with the same caveats, and only for couples residing in the U.S.).

Factor in couples living abroad or separated by law, and plug in the actual observed share of U.S. expats who are LGBT, and the number expands to up to more than 100,000.

I propose the following range, based on a watered-down tally of LGB U.S. expats personally observed in my life abroad: 40,000 – 100,000 same-sex binational couples in which one member is a U.S. citizen.

The key factor seems to be the assumption you make for proportion of Americans living abroad who are LGBT.

If you stick to the  minimalist numbers for the general population (3-5%) the figure you get is: 50,341. However, there are many reasons to think that the share among expats is much higher than in the home-bound general population:

• A motivation of alienation from a society that continues to deny our basic human rights.
• As “outcasts,” we are already predisposed to try something completely out-of-the-box, such as living abroad
• Most job opportunities for U.S. citizens overseas have higher educational requirements than in the U.S. mainland. Same-sex couples are on average twice as educated as the general population. Source: www.gaydemographics.org (based on 2000 Census)
• As expats, we are already “in a class of our own” as foreigners living abroad, and so are less likely to be affected by cultural norms — we are, by definition, “outliers.”

The actual share of LGBT U.S. expats that I observed while living abroad was actually 21%.

Here are the numbers for total binational same-sex couples with one U.S. citizen, worldwide, based on the share of U.S. expats who are LGBT.

Share   Total
4%      50,341
5%      53,008
6%      55,674
7%      58,340
8%      61,007
10%     66,339
12%     71,672
14%     77,004
16%     82,337
18%     87,670
20%     93,002
22%     98,335
24%    103,338
26%    109,000
28%    114,333
30%    119,666
32%    124,998
34%    130,331

Note that the above figures also assume that only 5% of total same-sex binational couples are currently separated by law, with one partner living in the U.S. and one living in his or her country. Assume that the share of expats who are LGBT is half of what I actually observed (that is, 12%). Based on that figure, if we include the assumed share who are living separated by law, again the figures rise:

Share living
separated Total
5%                      71,672
6%                      72,354
7%                      73,037
8%                       76,720
9%                       74,402
10%                    75,085

For the record, here are the figures used in these calculations:

And here are the numbers used in calculating the numbers relating to gay demographics: